Modeling the Change of Urban Spatial Structure: Use Interzonal Travel Data to Estimate Urban Growth and Expansion by Hierarchical Cluster Analyses

The Urban spatial structure is affected by spatial interactions among various activity locations, and land uses in the city over the transportation system. Each city has its unique circulation pattern of passengers and freight due to its unique geographic conditions and the distribution of locations of economic activities. In that sense, it is claimed in this chapter per the authors that urban spatial structure can be modeled using interzonal (O/D) travel data. Thus, the chapter presents a case study of modeling spatial structures developed by employing Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) using travel pattern data for current and future scenarios. As a result, urban growth and expansion were estimated based on the level of interaction (represented by distance or similarity modeled based on trip interchanges) over the transportation system in terms of population and/or employment increases. The interaction was described by a measure of distance or similarity, modeled with respect to trip interchanges.